Who gets Kansas City's weather right?
Every 30 minutes this site reads the forecasts from KSHB 41, KMBC 9, KCTV5 and FOX4, the National Weather Service and the main computer models. Every morning it checks yesterday's forecasts against what the weather actually did at KCI.
The scorecard, 1–2 days out
The scorecard is filling up. Forecasts have been collected since October 14, 10:51 a.m., Kansas City time; a forecast is scored once its day is over and the National Weather Service's official report for it is out (just after midnight), so the first scores come in over the next few days, and a fair ranking needs a few weeks.
Today's forecasts, side by side
High / low (the low is the one on the morning of that day) and chance of rain, as each forecaster publishes it right now. A station's weather team and its website often disagree, so they're listed and scored separately (why).
| Forecaster | Today | ThuOct 15 | FriOct 16 | SatOct 17 | SunOct 18 | MonOct 19 | TueOct 20 | WedOct 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TV weather teams | ||||||||
| KSHB 41 weather team | 65°– | 69°61° | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 66°– | 72°60° | 57°46° | 61°37° | 67°44° | – | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 65°–50% | 68°60°70% | 56°46° | 60°35° | 66°42° | 68°49° | 74°51° | – |
| TV station websites | ||||||||
| KSHB 41 website | 64°–66% | 68°62°79% | 53°46°2% | 60°35°6% | 66°40°5% | 71°46°6% | 74°46°4% | –55° |
| KMBC 9 website | 63°–45% | 67°61°74% | 53°45°2% | 59°34°7% | 66°40°5% | 70°45°8% | 74°45°5% | 79°54°21% |
| KCTV5 website | 65°–50% | 68°60°70% | 56°46°0% | 60°35°0% | 66°42°0% | 68°49°0% | 74°51°0% | 76°59°20% |
| FOX4 website* | 65°–63% | 69°63°81% | 54°47°2% | 60°36°6% | 67°41°6% | 72°47°7% | 75°47°5% | –56° |
| National Weather Service | ||||||||
| National Weather Service | 65°–86% | 73°59°85% | 57°46°1% | 61°37°0% | 68°42°11% | 72°50°11% | 76°52°13% | –58° |
| Computer models | ||||||||
| National Blend of Models | 67°59°79% | 71°62°68% | 54°45°5% | 59°38°0% | 67°42°1% | 72°48°2% | 74°51°3% | 77°58°20% |
| GFS (American model) | 64°61°79% | 63°60°68% | 52°43°5% | 58°38°0% | 64°45°1% | 66°51°2% | 72°54°3% | 77°55°20% |
| ECMWF (European model) | 71°61°96% | 73°65°96% | 57°49°4% | 56°38°0% | 62°43°5% | 66°47°14% | 70°51°20% | 75°56°18% |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 68°61°86% | 72°61°95% | 52°42°19% | 55°41°2% | 61°34°0% | 63°41°6% | 67°36°5% | 71°43°29% |
| ICON (German model) | 66°62°100% | 64°59°95% | 54°44°0% | 57°34°0% | 62°41°0% | 65°48°0% | 73°47°1% | – |
| HRRR | 64°61°79% | 63°60°68% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
* FOX4's own team gives its forecast on video only, so FOX4 is checked through its website.
What the weather did
| Day | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, October 13 | 88° | 65° | 1.24" |
| Monday, October 12 | 88° | 71° | none |
| Sunday, October 11 | 87° | 64° | none |
| Saturday, October 10 | 86° | 58° | none |
| Friday, October 9 | 85° | 59° | none |
| Thursday, October 8 | 83° | 58° | none |
| Wednesday, October 7 | 87° | 59° | none |