Rankings
Which TV weather team came closest: yesterday, this week, this month, this season and this year.
The measure: the average miss of the high and low temperatures, from the forecast each one had out at 9 a.m. the day before (1 day out), checked against the official numbers at KCI. Lower is better. The teams are compared on the same days: the days every ranked team had a forecast out. A result is final once the period is over and the teams were compared on enough of it (5 days for a week, 20 for a month, 60 for a season, 250 for a year). More on the rankings.
In the last 30 days, fewer days could be compared because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: no forecast out at 9 a.m. on one morning (Oct 21), because fox4kc.com was refusing the reader. Every refusal.
Scoring began October 15, 2026, so this season and this year are counted from then.
Number 1
Yesterday: Thursday, November 5, 2026
1 day compared. Final.
TV weather teams
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FOX4 weather team | 0.50° | 1.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 2 (tie) | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.00° | 0.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 2 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.00° | 2.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 4 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 3.0° | 1.0° | 1 |
Everyone, for comparison
The station websites, the National Weather Service, the computer models and the consensus, on the same days, ranked with the teams; any with a forecast on only some of them, or none, are listed after. 1 was closer than the best TV team: Consensus forecast (0.00°).
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus forecast | 0.00° | 0.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 2 (tie) | FOX4 weather team | 0.50° | 1.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 2 (tie) | KMBC 9 website | 0.50° | 0.0° | 1.0° | 1 |
| 2 (tie) | National Weather Service | 0.50° | 1.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.00° | 0.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.00° | 2.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | KCTV5 website | 1.00° | 0.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | National Blend of Models | 1.00° | 0.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | GFS (American model) | 1.00° | 1.0° | 1.0° | 1 |
| 5 (tie) | ECMWF (European model) | 1.00° | 0.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 11 | KSHB 41 website | 1.50° | 1.0° | 2.0° | 1 |
| 12 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 3.0° | 1.0° | 1 |
| 13 (tie) | FOX4 website | 2.50° | 2.0° | 3.0° | 1 |
| 13 (tie) | ICON (German model) | 2.50° | 5.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 13 (tie) | HRRR | 2.50° | 5.0° | 0.0° | 1 |
| 16 | GEM (Canadian model) | 4.00° | 3.0° | 5.0° | 1 |
This week, so far: Week of November 2, 2026
4 days compared. So far: final when the week is over.
TV weather teams
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.12° | 1.0° | 1.2° | 4 |
| 2 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 1.62° | 1.8° | 1.5° | 4 |
| 3 (tie) | FOX4 weather team | 1.75° | 2.2° | 1.2° | 4 |
| 3 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.75° | 3.0° | 0.5° | 4 |
Everyone, for comparison
The station websites, the National Weather Service, the computer models and the consensus, on the same days, ranked with the teams; any with a forecast on only some of them, or none, are listed after. None of them was closer than the best TV team.
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (tie) | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.12° | 1.0° | 1.2° | 4 |
| 1 (tie) | KCTV5 website | 1.12° | 1.0° | 1.2° | 4 |
| 1 (tie) | National Blend of Models | 1.12° | 1.2° | 1.0° | 4 |
| 4 (tie) | KMBC 9 website | 1.25° | 1.5° | 1.0° | 4 |
| 4 (tie) | Consensus forecast | 1.25° | 1.5° | 1.0° | 4 |
| 6 | National Weather Service | 1.38° | 1.8° | 1.0° | 4 |
| 7 | KSHB 41 website | 1.50° | 1.5° | 1.5° | 4 |
| 8 (tie) | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 1.62° | 1.8° | 1.5° | 4 |
| 8 (tie) | GFS (American model) | 1.62° | 1.5° | 1.8° | 4 |
| 10 (tie) | FOX4 weather team | 1.75° | 2.2° | 1.2° | 4 |
| 10 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.75° | 3.0° | 0.5° | 4 |
| 12 | FOX4 website | 1.88° | 1.8° | 2.0° | 4 |
| 13 | GEM (Canadian model) | 2.00° | 2.0° | 2.0° | 4 |
| 14 | ECMWF (European model) | 2.12° | 1.5° | 2.8° | 4 |
| 15 | ICON (German model) | 2.50° | 2.8° | 2.2° | 4 |
| 16 | HRRR | 2.75° | 4.0° | 1.5° | 4 |
This month, so far: November 2026
5 days compared. So far: final when the month is over.
TV weather teams
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.60° | 2.0° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 2.6° | 1.4° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 2.00° | 3.4° | 0.6° | 5 |
| 4 | FOX4 weather team | 2.20° | 3.0° | 1.4° | 5 |
Everyone, for comparison
The station websites, the National Weather Service, the computer models and the consensus, on the same days, ranked with the teams; any with a forecast on only some of them, or none, are listed after. 1 was closer than the best TV team: KMBC 9 website (1.50°).
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KMBC 9 website | 1.50° | 2.0° | 1.0° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.60° | 2.0° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | KSHB 41 website | 1.60° | 2.0° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | KCTV5 website | 1.60° | 2.0° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | National Blend of Models | 1.60° | 2.0° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 2 (tie) | Consensus forecast | 1.60° | 2.2° | 1.0° | 5 |
| 7 | National Weather Service | 1.90° | 2.6° | 1.2° | 5 |
| 8 (tie) | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 2.6° | 1.4° | 5 |
| 8 (tie) | KSHB 41 weather team | 2.00° | 3.4° | 0.6° | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | FOX4 weather team | 2.20° | 3.0° | 1.4° | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | GFS (American model) | 2.20° | 2.2° | 2.2° | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | ECMWF (European model) | 2.20° | 2.2° | 2.2° | 5 |
| 10 (tie) | GEM (Canadian model) | 2.20° | 2.6° | 1.8° | 5 |
| 14 (tie) | FOX4 website | 2.40° | 3.0° | 1.8° | 5 |
| 14 (tie) | ICON (German model) | 2.40° | 2.8° | 2.0° | 5 |
| 16 | HRRR | 2.60° | 3.6° | 1.6° | 5 |
This season, so far: Fall 2026
21 days compared (of 22 scored: the days every ranked team had a forecast out). So far: final when the season is over.
TV weather teams
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.40° | 1.2° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 2 | FOX4 weather team | 1.67° | 1.7° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 3 | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.71° | 2.0° | 1.5° | 21 |
| 4 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 21 |
Everyone, for comparison
The station websites, the National Weather Service, the computer models and the consensus, on the same days, ranked with the teams; any with a forecast on only some of them, or none, are listed after. 1 was closer than the best TV team: KMBC 9 website (1.35°).
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KMBC 9 website | 1.35° | 1.1° | 1.6° | 20 |
| 2 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.40° | 1.2° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 3 | KCTV5 website | 1.43° | 1.1° | 1.7° | 20 |
| 4 | Consensus forecast | 1.45° | 1.1° | 1.8° | 21 |
| 5 | FOX4 weather team | 1.67° | 1.7° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 6 | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.71° | 2.0° | 1.5° | 21 |
| 7 | KSHB 41 website | 1.73° | 1.6° | 1.9° | 20 |
| 8 | National Weather Service | 1.83° | 1.6° | 2.0° | 21 |
| 9 (tie) | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 21 |
| 9 (tie) | National Blend of Models | 2.00° | 1.3° | 2.7° | 20 |
| 9 (tie) | ICON (German model) | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 20 |
| 12 | GFS (American model) | 2.20° | 1.7° | 2.7° | 20 |
| 13 | ECMWF (European model) | 2.38° | 1.9° | 2.8° | 20 |
| 14 | FOX4 website | 2.42° | 2.4° | 2.5° | 20 |
| 15 | HRRR | 2.50° | 3.0° | 1.9° | 20 |
| 16 | GEM (Canadian model) | 2.77° | 2.1° | 3.4° | 20 |
This year, so far: 2026
21 days compared (of 22 scored: the days every ranked team had a forecast out). So far: final when the year is over.
TV weather teams
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.40° | 1.2° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 2 | FOX4 weather team | 1.67° | 1.7° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 3 | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.71° | 2.0° | 1.5° | 21 |
| 4 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 21 |
Everyone, for comparison
The station websites, the National Weather Service, the computer models and the consensus, on the same days, ranked with the teams; any with a forecast on only some of them, or none, are listed after. 1 was closer than the best TV team: KMBC 9 website (1.35°).
| Place | Forecaster | Average miss | High | Low | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KMBC 9 website | 1.35° | 1.1° | 1.6° | 20 |
| 2 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.40° | 1.2° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 3 | KCTV5 website | 1.43° | 1.1° | 1.7° | 20 |
| 4 | Consensus forecast | 1.45° | 1.1° | 1.8° | 21 |
| 5 | FOX4 weather team | 1.67° | 1.7° | 1.6° | 21 |
| 6 | KSHB 41 weather team | 1.71° | 2.0° | 1.5° | 21 |
| 7 | KSHB 41 website | 1.73° | 1.6° | 1.9° | 20 |
| 8 | National Weather Service | 1.83° | 1.6° | 2.0° | 21 |
| 9 (tie) | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 21 |
| 9 (tie) | National Blend of Models | 2.00° | 1.3° | 2.7° | 20 |
| 9 (tie) | ICON (German model) | 2.00° | 1.9° | 2.1° | 20 |
| 12 | GFS (American model) | 2.20° | 1.7° | 2.7° | 20 |
| 13 | ECMWF (European model) | 2.38° | 1.9° | 2.8° | 20 |
| 14 | FOX4 website | 2.42° | 2.4° | 2.5° | 20 |
| 15 | HRRR | 2.50° | 3.0° | 1.9° | 20 |
| 16 | GEM (Canadian model) | 2.77° | 2.1° | 3.4° | 20 |
Past results
Months
| Month | Number 1 | Average miss | Next | Closer than the best team | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | not enough days for a result (KCTV5 First Warn team led) | 1.34° | FOX4 weather team 1.50° | KMBC 9 website | 16 |
Weeks
| Week | Number 1 | Average miss | Next | Closer than the best team | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week of October 26, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.71° | FOX4 weather team 2.29° | ICON (German model) | 7 |
| Week of October 19, 2026 | FOX4 weather team | 1.25° | KCTV5 First Warn team 1.50° | KMBC 9 website | 6 |
| Week of October 12, 2026 | not enough days for a result (KSHB 41 weather team led) | 0.88° | KCTV5 First Warn team 1.00° | none | 4 |
The last 14 days
| Day | Number 1 | Average miss | Next | Closer than the best team | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, November 5, 2026 | FOX4 weather team | 0.50° | KCTV5 First Warn team 1.00° | Consensus forecast | 1 |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.50° | FOX4 weather team 2.50° | none | 1 |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 0.50° | KCTV5 First Warn team 1.50° | none | 1 |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 0.50° | FOX4 weather team 1.50° | KSHB 41 website, ECMWF (European model) | 1 |
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | KSHB 41 weather team | 3.00° | KCTV5 First Warn team 3.50° | KSHB 41 website, ICON (German model), HRRR, KMBC 9 website, ECMWF (European model) | 1 |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 2.00° | FOX4 weather team 3.00° | GFS (American model), ECMWF (European model), GEM (Canadian model), ICON (German model) | 1 |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | FOX4 weather team | 0.50° | KSHB 41 weather team 1.00° | none | 1 |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.00° | FOX4 weather team 3.00° | none | 1 |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | FOX4 weather team and KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.00° | KMBC 9 First Alert team 2.00° | National Weather Service | 1 |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team and KSHB 41 weather team | 2.00° | KMBC 9 First Alert team 2.50° | ICON (German model) | 1 |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team and KMBC 9 First Alert team | 1.00° | FOX4 weather team 1.50° | ICON (German model) | 1 |
| Sunday, October 25, 2026 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.50° | FOX4 weather team 2.00° | ICON (German model), KMBC 9 website | 1 |
| Saturday, October 24, 2026 | FOX4 weather team and KCTV5 First Warn team | 1.00° | KMBC 9 First Alert team 2.00° | ICON (German model) | 1 |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | FOX4 weather team | 0.00° | KSHB 41 weather team 0.50° | none | 1 |
The WeatherChecked seal marks the number 1 TV weather team for a month, a season or a year, under these rules.