Wednesday, October 14, 2026
The day isn't over: it's scored once the National Weather Service's report for it is in, just after midnight. How each forecaster's 9 a.m. forecast for it is doing so far: the scorecard's Today section.
How the forecasts changed
Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to now (6:37 p.m.). A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind. The shaded part is the day itself.
- KSHB 41 weather team
- KMBC 9 First Alert team
- KCTV5 First Warn team
- FOX4 weather team
- KSHB 41 website
- KMBC 9 website
- KCTV5 website
- FOX4 website
- National Weather Service
- National Blend of Models
- GFS (American model)
- ECMWF (European model)
- GEM (Canadian model)
- ICON (German model)
- HRRR
The high
The low
The chance of rain
KSHB 41's and KMBC 9's forecast articles don't give a chance of rain. KCTV5's and FOX4's graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.
Every change
Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)
| Forecaster | The high, every change | Back-and-forth | The low, every change | Back-and-forth | Chance of rain, every change | Back-and-forth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSHB 41 weather team | 65° | 0° | – | 0° | – | – |
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 66° | 0° | – | 0° | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 65° | 0° | – | 0° | 50% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 weather team | 64° → 65° | 0° | – | 0° | 60% | 0 pts |
| KSHB 41 website | 66° → 64° → 66° → 65° → 66° → 72° → 68° → 69° | 14° | – | 0° | 56% → 66% → 63% → … → 69% → 66% → 67% (13 versions) | 82 pts |
| KMBC 9 website | 63° → 64° → 63° → 65° → 67° → 68° → 67° | 4° | – | 0° | 45% → 76% → 49% → … → 59% → 61% → 60% (12 versions) | 116 pts |
| KCTV5 website | 65° → 67° | 0° | – | 0° | 50% → 60% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 website | 65° → 66° → 67° → 69° → 68° → 66° → 65° | 8° | – | 0° | 53% → 63% → 54% → … → 42% → 41% → 0% (9 versions) | 24 pts |
| National Weather Service | 65° | 0° | – | 0° | 86% → 84% | 0 pts |
| National Blend of Models | 67° | 0° | 59° | 0° | 79% | 0 pts |
| GFS (American model) | 64° → 65° → 64° → 66° → 65° → 66° | 4° | 61° → 60° | 0° | 79% → 100% | 0 pts |
| ECMWF (European model) | 71° → 69° → 71° → 67° → 71° | 12° | 61° | 0° | 96% → 77% | 0 pts |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 68° | 0° | 61° | 0° | 86% | 0 pts |
| ICON (German model) | 66° | 0° | 62° → 61° | 0° | 100% | 0 pts |
| HRRR | 64° → 65° → 64° → 66° → 65° → 66° | 4° | 61° | 0° | 79% | 0 pts |