Friday, October 16, 2026
The forecasts for this day so far. It's scored once the day is over.
How the forecasts changed
Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to now (6:37 p.m.). A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind. The shaded part is the day itself.
- KSHB 41 weather team
- KMBC 9 First Alert team
- KCTV5 First Warn team
- FOX4 weather team
- KSHB 41 website
- KMBC 9 website
- KCTV5 website
- FOX4 website
- National Weather Service
- National Blend of Models
- GFS (American model)
- ECMWF (European model)
- GEM (Canadian model)
- ICON (German model)
- HRRR
The high
The low
The chance of rain
KSHB 41's and KMBC 9's forecast articles don't give a chance of rain. KCTV5's and FOX4's graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.
Every change
Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)
| Forecaster | The high, every change | Back-and-forth | The low, every change | Back-and-forth | Chance of rain, every change | Back-and-forth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSHB 41 weather team | 57° | 0° | 45° | 0° | – | – |
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 57° | 0° | 46° | 0° | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 56° → 55° | 0° | 46° → 45° | 0° | 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 weather team | 57° → 56° → 50° | 0° | 45° → 42° → 41° | 0° | 0% | 0 pts |
| KSHB 41 website | 53° → 52° → 53° → 54° → 53° | 4° | 46° → 45° → 46° | 2° | 2% → 3% → 2% → 3% → 6% | 2 pts |
| KMBC 9 website | 53° → 52° → 53° → 52° → 53° | 4° | 45° → 46° → 45° → 46° → 45° | 4° | 2% → 3% → 4% → 5% → 9% | 0 pts |
| KCTV5 website | 56° → 55° | 0° | 46° → 45° | 0° | 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 website | 54° → 53° → 54° → 53° → 54° | 4° | 47° → 46° → 47° → 46° | 2° | 2% → 3% → 9% | 0 pts |
| National Weather Service | 57° → 55° | 0° | 46° → 44° | 0° | 1% → 3% → 6% | 0 pts |
| National Blend of Models | 54° → 53° | 0° | 45° → 46° | 0° | 5% → 3% | 0 pts |
| GFS (American model) | 52° → 51° → 53° | 2° | 43° → 42° → 45° | 2° | 5% → 3% → 5% | 4 pts |
| ECMWF (European model) | 57° → 56° → 57° → 55° → 57° | 6° | 49° → 47° | 0° | 4% → 8% | 0 pts |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 51° → 52° | 0° | 42° | 0° | 19% → 5% | 0 pts |
| ICON (German model) | 54° → 53° | 0° | 44° → 45° | 0° | 5% → 0% | 0 pts |
| HRRR | – | 0° | 42° | 0° | 3% | 0 pts |