Saturday, October 24, 2026
Most accurate TV weather team for the day, by the Rankings' measure (the average miss of the high and low, 1 day out): FOX4 weather team and KCTV5 First Warn team, 1.00°.
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FOX4 weather team and KCTV5 First Warn team: number 1 Kansas City TV weather team for Saturday, October 24, 2026 (tied). The station is welcome to show this badge, linked to this page, which has the result and how it was decided.
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Gaps in the forecasts for this day because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 19, 5:07 p.m. to Oct 21, 2:37 p.m.
How the forecasts changed
Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to the end of the day. A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind; the line marked Actual is what happened. The shaded part is the day itself.
- KSHB 41 weather team
- KMBC 9 First Alert team
- KCTV5 First Warn team
- FOX4 weather team
- KSHB 41 website
- KMBC 9 website
- KCTV5 website
- FOX4 website
- National Weather Service
- National Blend of Models
- GFS (American model)
- ECMWF (European model)
- GEM (Canadian model)
- ICON (German model)
- HRRR
The high
The low
The chance of rain
KMBC 9's on-air graphic gives no chance of rain (nor did the KMBC 9 and KSHB 41 articles read until October 15). The KSHB 41, KCTV5 and FOX4 graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.
Every change
Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)
| Forecaster | The high, every change | Back-and-forth | The low, every change | Back-and-forth | Chance of rain, every change | Back-and-forth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSHB 41 weather team | 79° → 77° → 78° | 2° | 59° → 58° → 56° → 58° → 55° → 54° → 56° | 8° | 0% | 0 pts |
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 79° → 77° → 78° | 2° | 60° → 59° → 58° → 57° | 0° | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 78° → 76° → 77° → 78° → 79° | 4° | 59° → 57° → 58° → 55° | 2° | 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 weather team | 77° → 78° → 79° → 80° | 0° | 59° → 56° → 54° → 55° | 2° | 20% → 0% | 0 pts |
| KSHB 41 website | 80° → 81° → 80° → … → 78° → 79° → 78° (75 versions) | 74° | 60° → 61° → 60° → … → 56° → 57° → 56° (66 versions) | 62° | 10% → 5% → 6% → … → 3% → 2% → 1% (74 versions) | 134 pts |
| KMBC 9 website | 78° → 77° → 78° → … → 80° → 79° → 80° (75 versions) | 72° | 60° → 58° → 57° → … → 55° → 56° → 55° (69 versions) | 66° | 10% → 11% → 10% → … → 2% → 3% → 2% (73 versions) | 96 pts |
| KCTV5 website | 80° → 78° → 76° → … → 80° → 81° → 80° (12 versions) | 14° | 61° → 59° → 58° → 59° → 57° → 58° → 55° → 57° | 8° | 20% → 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 website | 45° → 44° → 43° → … → 65° → 63° → 60° (25 versions) | 60° | 38° → 37° → 59° → … → 57° → 56° → 57° (17 versions) | 18° | 0% → 3% → 4% → … → 3% → 1% → 0% (14 versions) | 26 pts |
| National Weather Service | 78° → 79° → 78° → … → 79° → 80° → 79° (11 versions) | 10° | 62° → 61° → 60° → … → 57° → 58° → 57° (10 versions) | 8° | 11% → 7% → 11% → … → 0% → 1% → 0% (11 versions) | 20 pts |
| National Blend of Models | 76° → 78° → 76° → … → 77° → 78° → 79° (23 versions) | 26° | 62° → 61° → 60° → … → 57° → 58° → 57° (20 versions) | 18° | 18% → 17% → 8% → … → 1% → 2% → 1% (19 versions) | 18 pts |
| GFS (American model) | 76° → 78° → 77° → … → 77° → 76° → 78° (19 versions) | 20° | 61° → 60° → 64° → … → 57° → 56° → 57° (20 versions) | 28° | 24% → 29% → 23% → … → 1% → 6% → 0% (15 versions) | 64 pts |
| ECMWF (European model) | 73° → 71° → 73° → … → 76° → 77° → 79° (71 versions) | 120° | 58° → 57° → 56° → … → 58° → 57° → 56° (21 versions) | 22° | 15% → 12% → 13% → … → 5% → 4% → 0% (11 versions) | 28 pts |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 71° → 73° → 76° → … → 78° → 79° → 78° (21 versions) | 24° | 59° → 57° → 58° → … → 57° → 56° → 53° (21 versions) | 32° | 14% → 5% → 6% → 0% | 2 pts |
| ICON (German model) | 74° → 76° → 75° → … → 78° → 79° → 80° (12 versions) | 8° | 50° → 53° → 50° → … → 53° → 54° → 53° (16 versions) | 20° | 8% → 5% → 7% → 5% → 0% | 4 pts |
| HRRR | 79° → 80° → 79° → … → 79° → 80° → 79° (10 versions) | 10° | 59° → 57° → 58° → 57° → 58° → 57° → 56° → 55° | 4° | – | – |
What they said
Each forecaster's 9 a.m. forecast for this day, made 1 to 7 days before. The small numbers are the miss in degrees.
| Days before | Forecaster | High | Low | Rain chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus forecast | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | FOX4 weather team | 79° +1 | 54° +1 | no rain✓ |
| 1 | FOX4 website | 80° +2 | 57° +4 | 2%✓ |
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 78° 0 | 55° +2 | no rain✓ |
| 1 | KCTV5 website | 78° 0 | 55° +2 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | – |
| 1 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 56° +3 | 2%✓ |
| 1 | KSHB 41 weather team | 77° -1 | 56° +3 | no rain✓ |
| 1 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 56° +3 | 2%✓ |
| 1 | ECMWF (European model) | 76° -2 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | GEM (Canadian model) | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | GFS (American model) | 77° -1 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | HRRR | 79° +1 | 57° +4 | no rain✓ |
| 1 | ICON (German model) | 78° 0 | 54° +1 | 0%✓ |
| 1 | National Blend of Models | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | 2%✓ |
| 1 | National Weather Service | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | Consensus forecast | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | FOX4 weather team | 79° +1 | 56° +3 | no rain✓ |
| 2 | FOX4 website | 81° +3 | 57° +4 | 2%✓ |
| 2 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | no rain✓ |
| 2 | KCTV5 website | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | – |
| 2 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 55° +2 | 2%✓ |
| 2 | KSHB 41 weather team | 77° -1 | 54° +1 | no rain✓ |
| 2 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 56° +3 | 2%✓ |
| 2 | ECMWF (European model) | 78° 0 | 60° +7 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | GEM (Canadian model) | 76° -2 | 56° +3 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | GFS (American model) | 75° -3 | 56° +3 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | ICON (German model) | 79° +1 | 54° +1 | no rain✓ |
| 2 | National Blend of Models | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 2 | National Weather Service | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | Consensus forecast | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | no rain✓ |
| 3 | KCTV5 website | 78° 0 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | – |
| 3 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 55° +2 | 2%✓ |
| 3 | KSHB 41 weather team | 77° -1 | 58° +5 | no rain✓ |
| 3 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 55° +2 | 1%✓ |
| 3 | ECMWF (European model) | 75° -3 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | GEM (Canadian model) | 78° 0 | 56° +3 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | GFS (American model) | 73° -5 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | ICON (German model) | 77° -1 | 55° +2 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | National Blend of Models | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 3 | National Weather Service | 77° -1 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | Consensus forecast | 77° -1 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | FOX4 weather team | 77° -1 | 59° +6 | no rain✓ |
| 4 | FOX4 website | 80° +2 | 57° +4 | 1%✓ |
| 4 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 77° -1 | 57° +4 | no rain✓ |
| 4 | KCTV5 website | 77° -1 | 57° +4 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 77° -1 | 58° +5 | – |
| 4 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 56° +3 | 1%✓ |
| 4 | KSHB 41 weather team | 77° -1 | 56° +3 | no rain✓ |
| 4 | KSHB 41 website | 79° +1 | 56° +3 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | ECMWF (European model) | 77° -1 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | GEM (Canadian model) | 75° -3 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | GFS (American model) | 77° -1 | 58° +5 | 6%✓ |
| 4 | ICON (German model) | 76° -2 | 56° +3 | no rain✓ |
| 4 | National Blend of Models | 77° -1 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 4 | National Weather Service | 76° -2 | 58° +5 | 6%✓ |
| 5 | Consensus forecast | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | 5%✓ |
| 5 | FOX4 weather team | 77° -1 | 59° +6 | no rain✓ |
| 5 | FOX4 website | 80° +2 | 58° +5 | 4%✓ |
| 5 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | no rain✓ |
| 5 | KCTV5 website | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | 0%✓ |
| 5 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 79° +1 | 59° +6 | – |
| 5 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 57° +4 | 3%✓ |
| 5 | KSHB 41 weather team | 79° +1 | 58° +5 | no rain✓ |
| 5 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 57° +4 | 4%✓ |
| 5 | ECMWF (European model) | 75° -3 | 58° +5 | 6%✓ |
| 5 | GEM (Canadian model) | 76° -2 | 61° +8 | 5%✓ |
| 5 | GFS (American model) | 76° -2 | 60° +7 | 12%✓ |
| 5 | ICON (German model) | 76° -2 | 52° -1 | 7%✓ |
| 5 | National Blend of Models | 76° -2 | 61° +8 | 5%✓ |
| 5 | National Weather Service | 78° 0 | 60° +7 | 13%✓ |
| 6 | Consensus forecast | 78° 0 | 59° +6 | 8%✓ |
| 6 | FOX4 weather team | 77° -1 | 59° +6 | 20%✓ |
| 6 | FOX4 website | 81° +3 | 59° +6 | 3%✓ |
| 6 | KCTV5 website | 78° 0 | 58° +5 | 0%✓ |
| 6 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 79° +1 | 60° +7 | – |
| 6 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 57° +4 | 4%✓ |
| 6 | KSHB 41 weather team | 79° +1 | 59° +6 | no rain✓ |
| 6 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 58° +5 | 2%✓ |
| 6 | ECMWF (European model) | 74° -4 | 57° +4 | 25%✓ |
| 6 | GEM (Canadian model) | 76° -2 | 61° +8 | 5%✓ |
| 6 | GFS (American model) | 76° -2 | 62° +9 | 13%✓ |
| 6 | ICON (German model) | 74° -4 | 53° 0 | 8%✓ |
| 6 | National Blend of Models | 78° 0 | 61° +8 | 8%✓ |
| 6 | National Weather Service | 79° +1 | 60° +7 | 11%✓ |
| 7 | Consensus forecast | 79° +1 | 59° +6 | 14%✓ |
| 7 | FOX4 website | – – | 59° +6 | – |
| 7 | KCTV5 website | 80° +2 | 61° +8 | 20%✓ |
| 7 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 80° +2 | 60° +7 | – |
| 7 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +1 | 58° +5 | 6%✓ |
| 7 | KSHB 41 weather team | 79° +1 | 59° +6 | no rain✓ |
| 7 | KSHB 41 website | 80° +2 | 59° +6 | 6%✓ |
| 7 | ECMWF (European model) | 73° -5 | 58° +5 | 12%✓ |
| 7 | GEM (Canadian model) | 73° -5 | 57° +4 | 14%✓ |
| 7 | GFS (American model) | 78° 0 | 64° +11 | 23%✓ |
| 7 | National Blend of Models | 78° 0 | 62° +9 | 17%✓ |
| 7 | National Weather Service | – – | 62° +9 | – |