Friday, October 30, 2026
High74°
Low58°
official minimum
Rain0.34"
Most accurate TV weather team for the day, by the Rankings' measure (the average miss of the high and low, 1 day out): FOX4 weather team, 0.50°.
The WeatherChecked badge
FOX4 weather team: number 1 Kansas City TV weather team for Friday, October 30, 2026. The station is welcome to show this badge, linked to this page, which has the result and how it was decided.
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Gaps in the forecasts for this day because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 6:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 9:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.
How the forecasts changed
Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to the end of the day. A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind; the line marked Actual is what happened. The shaded part is the day itself.
- KSHB 41 weather team
- KMBC 9 First Alert team
- KCTV5 First Warn team
- FOX4 weather team
- KSHB 41 website
- KMBC 9 website
- KCTV5 website
- FOX4 website
- National Weather Service
- National Blend of Models
- GFS (American model)
- ECMWF (European model)
- GEM (Canadian model)
- ICON (German model)
- HRRR
The high
The low
The chance of rain
KMBC 9's on-air graphic gives no chance of rain (nor did the KMBC 9 and KSHB 41 articles read until October 15). The KSHB 41, KCTV5 and FOX4 graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.
Every change
Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)
| Forecaster | The high, every change | Back-and-forth | The low, every change | Back-and-forth | Chance of rain, every change | Back-and-forth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSHB 41 weather team | 66° → 65° → 68° → 71° → 74° → 75° → 74° → 73° | 6° | 54° → 58° → 62° → 61° → 60° → 59° | 6° | 20% → 30% → 20% → 30% → 50% → 60% | 20 pts |
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 66° → 70° → 76° → 75° | 2° | 51° → 54° → 61° → 62° → 60° → 59° | 6° | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 70° → 68° → 74° → … → 74° → 72° → 75° (11 versions) | 20° | 55° → 60° → 59° | 2° | 30% → 40% → 60% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 weather team | 74° → 76° → 75° → … → 76° → 75° → 74° (17 versions) | 22° | 52° → 62° → 61° → … → 58° → 59° → 58° (10 versions) | 12° | 30% → 40% → 30% → 40% → 30% → 40% | 40 pts |
| KSHB 41 website | 76° → 75° → 74° → … → 75° → 76° → 75° (114 versions) | 122° | 54° → 55° → 56° → … → 61° → 62° → 61° (83 versions) | 78° | 35% → 32% → 31% → … → 89% → 90% → 73% (175 versions) | 1264 pts |
| KMBC 9 website | 69° → 67° → 72° → … → 69° → 68° → 67° (100 versions) | 122° | 53° → 54° → 55° → … → 59° → 60° → 59° (68 versions) | 64° | 38% → 39% → 42% → … → 100% → 77% → 84% (155 versions) | 964 pts |
| KCTV5 website | 67° → 70° → 68° → … → 72° → 75° → 78° (13 versions) | 20° | 56° → 55° → 60° → 59° | 4° | 30% → 40% → 60% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 website | 63° → 62° → 80° → … → 77° → 78° → 74° (58 versions) | 72° | 54° → 58° → 59° → … → 61° → 62° → 61° (27 versions) | 26° | 0% → 20% → 18% → … → 18% → 15% → 0% (56 versions) | 470 pts |
| National Weather Service | 67° → 72° → 78° → … → 76° → 77° → 75° (9 versions) | 10° | 51° → 56° → 62° → 63° → 61° → 60° → 59° | 8° | 45% → 35% → 51% → … → 51% → 63% → 66% (19 versions) | 136 pts |
| National Blend of Models | 66° → 67° → 71° → … → 73° → 74° → 75° (18 versions) | 16° | 52° → 53° → 52° → … → 59° → 60° → 59° (16 versions) | 16° | 30% → 28% → 37% → … → 48% → 43% → 42% (42 versions) | 272 pts |
| GFS (American model) | 63° → 49° → 64° → … → 72° → 73° → 74° (27 versions) | 82° | 59° → 45° → 57° → … → 58° → 59° → 57° (19 versions) | 60° | 52% → 46% → 58% → … → 91% → 90% → 100% (28 versions) | 178 pts |
| ECMWF (European model) | 54° → 56° → 66° → … → 77° → 76° → 74° (21 versions) | 32° | 44° → 42° → 62° → … → 61° → 60° → 57° (17 versions) | 30° | 27% → 24% → 29% → … → 59% → 89% → 90% (43 versions) | 218 pts |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 74° → 73° → 74° → … → 75° → 76° → 75° (21 versions) | 56° | 58° → 59° → 63° → … → 62° → 61° → 60° (20 versions) | 34° | 20% → 49% → 44% → … → 61% → 62% → 71% (16 versions) | 116 pts |
| ICON (German model) | 77° → 83° → 76° → … → 72° → 74° → 73° (20 versions) | 38° | 59° → 58° → 60° → … → 62° → 60° → 59° (21 versions) | 34° | 21% → 19% → 15% → … → 80% → 78% → 98% (17 versions) | 116 pts |
| HRRR | 78° → 73° → 78° → … → 77° → 76° → 74° (9 versions) | 14° | 60° → 58° → 60° → … → 59° → 58° → 57° (10 versions) | 8° | – | – |
What they said
Each forecaster's 9 a.m. forecast for this day, made 1 to 7 days before. The small numbers are the miss in degrees.
| Days before | Forecaster | High | Low | Rain chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Consensus forecast | 74° 0 | 59° +1 | 50%✗ |
| 1 | FOX4 weather team | 74° 0 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 1 | FOX4 website | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 47%✗ |
| 1 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 72° -2 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 1 | KCTV5 website | 72° -2 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 1 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 76° +2 | 59° +1 | – |
| 1 | KMBC 9 website | 73° -1 | 59° +1 | 24%✗ |
| 1 | KSHB 41 weather team | 73° -1 | 59° +1 | 50%✓ |
| 1 | KSHB 41 website | 74° 0 | 60° +2 | 24%✗ |
| 1 | ECMWF (European model) | 76° +2 | 62° +4 | 55%✓ |
| 1 | GEM (Canadian model) | 74° 0 | 62° +4 | 61%✓ |
| 1 | GFS (American model) | 74° 0 | 59° +1 | 91%✓ |
| 1 | HRRR | 78° +4 | 60° +2 | no rain✗ |
| 1 | ICON (German model) | 75° +1 | 62° +4 | 57%✓ |
| 1 | National Blend of Models | 74° 0 | 59° +1 | 58%✓ |
| 1 | National Weather Service | 75° +1 | 59° +1 | 65%✓ |
| 2 | Consensus forecast | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 42%✗ |
| 2 | FOX4 weather team | 75° +1 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 2 | FOX4 website | 74° 0 | 61° +3 | 47%✗ |
| 2 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 72° -2 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 2 | KCTV5 website | 72° -2 | 59° +1 | 40%✗ |
| 2 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | – |
| 2 | KMBC 9 website | 74° 0 | 59° +1 | 48%✗ |
| 2 | KSHB 41 weather team | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 30%✗ |
| 2 | KSHB 41 website | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 24%✗ |
| 2 | ECMWF (European model) | 77° +3 | 60° +2 | 50%✓ |
| 2 | GEM (Canadian model) | 70° -4 | 62° +4 | 50%✓ |
| 2 | GFS (American model) | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | 83%✓ |
| 2 | ICON (German model) | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 42%✗ |
| 2 | National Blend of Models | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 41%✗ |
| 2 | National Weather Service | 76° +2 | 59° +1 | 67%✓ |
| 3 | Consensus forecast | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 40%✗ |
| 3 | FOX4 weather team | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 40%✗ |
| 3 | FOX4 website | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 23%✗ |
| 3 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 72° -2 | 60° +2 | 40%✗ |
| 3 | KCTV5 website | 72° -2 | 60° +2 | 40%✗ |
| 3 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 76° +2 | 62° +4 | – |
| 3 | KMBC 9 website | 73° -1 | 59° +1 | 24%✗ |
| 3 | KSHB 41 weather team | 74° 0 | 61° +3 | 30%✗ |
| 3 | KSHB 41 website | 74° 0 | 60° +2 | 23%✗ |
| 3 | ECMWF (European model) | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 33%✗ |
| 3 | GEM (Canadian model) | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 71%✓ |
| 3 | GFS (American model) | 74° 0 | 58° 0 | 61%✓ |
| 3 | ICON (German model) | 78° +4 | 62° +4 | 40%✗ |
| 3 | National Blend of Models | 74° 0 | 61° +3 | 45%✗ |
| 3 | National Weather Service | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | 46%✗ |
| 4 | Consensus forecast | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 29%✗ |
| 4 | FOX4 weather team | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 40%✗ |
| 4 | FOX4 website | 76° +2 | 63° +5 | 19%✗ |
| 4 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 40%✗ |
| 4 | KCTV5 website | 75° +1 | 60° +2 | 40%✗ |
| 4 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 76° +2 | 62° +4 | – |
| 4 | KMBC 9 website | 74° 0 | 61° +3 | 22%✗ |
| 4 | KSHB 41 weather team | 74° 0 | 61° +3 | 20%✗ |
| 4 | KSHB 41 website | 75° +1 | 62° +4 | 17%✗ |
| 4 | ECMWF (European model) | 77° +3 | 61° +3 | 42%✗ |
| 4 | GEM (Canadian model) | 74° 0 | 62° +4 | 29%✗ |
| 4 | GFS (American model) | 75° +1 | 61° +3 | 65%✓ |
| 4 | ICON (German model) | 76° +2 | 59° +1 | 13%✗ |
| 4 | National Blend of Models | 74° 0 | 62° +4 | 26%✗ |
| 4 | National Weather Service | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 49%✗ |
| 5 | Consensus forecast | 76° +2 | 62° +4 | 27%✗ |
| 5 | FOX4 weather team | 75° +1 | 62° +4 | – |
| 5 | FOX4 website | 78° +4 | 65° +7 | 24%✗ |
| 5 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | 30%✗ |
| 5 | KCTV5 website | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | 30%✗ |
| 5 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | – |
| 5 | KMBC 9 website | 77° +3 | 63° +5 | 24%✗ |
| 5 | KSHB 41 weather team | 74° 0 | 62° +4 | 20%✗ |
| 5 | KSHB 41 website | 77° +3 | 64° +6 | 22%✗ |
| 5 | ECMWF (European model) | 76° +2 | 60° +2 | 47%✗ |
| 5 | GEM (Canadian model) | 78° +4 | 67° +9 | 43%✗ |
| 5 | GFS (American model) | 76° +2 | 62° +4 | 35%✗ |
| 5 | ICON (German model) | 76° +2 | 61° +3 | 15%✗ |
| 5 | National Blend of Models | 77° +3 | 63° +5 | 11%✗ |
| 5 | National Weather Service | 78° +4 | 62° +4 | 29%✗ |
| 6 | Consensus forecast | 76° +2 | 59° +1 | 30%✗ |
| 6 | FOX4 weather team | 76° +2 | 52° -6 | 30%✗ |
| 6 | FOX4 website | 79° +5 | 66° +8 | 18%✗ |
| 6 | KCTV5 First Warn team | 68° -6 | 55° -3 | 30%✗ |
| 6 | KCTV5 website | 68° -6 | 55° -3 | 30%✗ |
| 6 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 70° -4 | 54° -4 | – |
| 6 | KMBC 9 website | 79° +5 | 64° +6 | 18%✗ |
| 6 | KSHB 41 weather team | 68° -6 | 58° 0 | 30%✗ |
| 6 | KSHB 41 website | 79° +5 | 64° +6 | 18%✗ |
| 6 | ECMWF (European model) | 78° +4 | 62° +4 | 24%✗ |
| 6 | GEM (Canadian model) | 80° +6 | 67° +9 | 33%✗ |
| 6 | GFS (American model) | 75° +1 | 64° +6 | 32%✗ |
| 6 | ICON (German model) | 77° +3 | 58° 0 | 21%✗ |
| 6 | National Blend of Models | 73° -1 | 59° +1 | 17%✗ |
| 6 | National Weather Service | 72° -2 | 56° -2 | 51%✓ |
| 7 | Consensus forecast | 66° -8 | 54° -4 | 31%✗ |
| 7 | FOX4 website | – – | 58° 0 | – |
| 7 | KCTV5 website | 67° -7 | 56° -2 | 30%✗ |
| 7 | KMBC 9 First Alert team | 66° -8 | 51° -7 | – |
| 7 | KMBC 9 website | 75° +1 | 57° -1 | 31%✗ |
| 7 | KSHB 41 weather team | 66° -8 | 54° -4 | 20%✗ |
| 7 | KSHB 41 website | 76° +2 | 58° 0 | 32%✗ |
| 7 | ECMWF (European model) | 66° -8 | 42° -16 | 24%✗ |
| 7 | GEM (Canadian model) | 73° -1 | 59° +1 | 49%✗ |
| 7 | GFS (American model) | 49° -25 | 45° -13 | 58%✓ |
| 7 | National Blend of Models | 66° -8 | 53° -5 | 28%✗ |
| 7 | National Weather Service | – – | 51° -7 | – |