Saturday, October 31, 2026

High65°

Low61° overnight (7 p.m.–9 a.m.); the day's official minimum was 60° at 11:59 p.m. standard time

Rain0.17"

Most accurate TV weather team for the day, by the Rankings' measure (the average miss of the high and low, 1 day out): KCTV5 First Warn team, 2.00°.

The WeatherChecked badge

KCTV5 First Warn team: number 1 Kansas City TV weather team for Saturday, October 31, 2026. The station is welcome to show this badge, linked to this page, which has the result and how it was decided.

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Code for a web page

<a href="https://kcweathercheck.com/day/2026-10-31/"><img src="https://kcweathercheck.com/static/badges/weatherchecked-ranked-1-daily-800.png" width="300" style="height:auto" alt="WeatherChecked Ranked #1 - Daily: KCTV5 First Warn team, Saturday, October 31, 2026, KC Weather Check"></a>

Gaps in the forecasts for this day because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 6:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 9:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 31, 10:37 p.m. to Nov 1, 9:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 31, 11:37 p.m. to Nov 1, 9:37 p.m.

How the forecasts changed

Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to the end of the day. A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind; the line marked Actual is what happened. The shaded part is the day itself.

KSHB 41 weather team
KMBC 9 First Alert team
KCTV5 First Warn team
FOX4 weather team

KSHB 41 website
KMBC 9 website
KCTV5 website
FOX4 website

National Weather Service
National Blend of Models
GFS (American model)
ECMWF (European model)
GEM (Canadian model)
ICON (German model)
HRRR

The high

The low

The chance of rain

KMBC 9's on-air graphic gives no chance of rain (nor did the KMBC 9 and KSHB 41 articles read until October 15). The KSHB 41, KCTV5 and FOX4 graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.

Every change

Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)

Forecaster	The high, every change	Back-and-forth	The low, every change	Back-and-forth	Chance of rain, every change	Back-and-forth
KSHB 41 weather team	66° → 68° → 69° → 68°	2°	55° → 58° → 57° → 58° → 57°	4°	30% → 40% → 30% → 40% → 30%	40 pts
KMBC 9 First Alert team	67° → 71° → 69°	4°	54° → 60° → 59° → 57° → 59°	6°	–	–
KCTV5 First Warn team	70° → 68° → 67°	0°	58° → 59° → 60°	0°	40% → 50% → 60% → 50%	20 pts
FOX4 weather team	65° → 70° → 71° → … → 70° → 68° → 67° (14 versions)	20°	59° → 58° → 57° → … → 58° → 59° → 55° (12 versions)	10°	0% → 40% → 0% → 60% → 40% → 80%	120 pts
KSHB 41 website	73° → 72° → 73° → … → 67° → 66° → 65° (101 versions)	104°	61° → 60° → 62° → … → 61° → 60° → 61° (47 versions)	48°	61% → 62% → 63% → … → 46% → 88% → 37% (156 versions)	1072 pts
KMBC 9 website	70° → 72° → 73° → … → 67° → 68° → 67° (85 versions)	98°	60° → 62° → 63° → … → 59° → 60° → 59° (51 versions)	52°	58% → 54% → 61% → … → 43% → 39% → 24% (166 versions)	742 pts
KCTV5 website	65° → 66° → 70° → 68° → 67° → 65°	10°	51° → 57° → 58° → 59° → 60°	0°	40% → 50% → 60% → 50% → 30%	40 pts
FOX4 website	60° → 57° → 70° → … → 62° → 61° → 62° (41 versions)	66°	57° → 64° → 65° → … → 61° → 62° → 61° (25 versions)	26°	0% → 66% → 65% → … → 72% → 55% → 0% (63 versions)	486 pts
National Weather Service	73° → 74° → 72° → … → 69° → 70° → 68° (10 versions)	12°	54° → 60° → 59° → 58° → 57° → 58° → 57° → 59°	8°	72% → 60% → 66% → … → 35% → 34% → 32% (19 versions)	194 pts
National Blend of Models	67° → 66° → 68° → … → 68° → 69° → 68° (18 versions)	24°	57° → 59° → 61° → … → 59° → 60° → 59° (11 versions)	10°	46% → 47% → 51% → … → 54% → 50% → 54% (40 versions)	268 pts
GFS (American model)	62° → 63° → 65° → … → 68° → 66° → 68° (29 versions)	78°	58° → 60° → 61° → … → 60° → 61° → 60° (21 versions)	34°	58% → 53% → 69% → … → 96% → 97% → 100% (29 versions)	202 pts
ECMWF (European model)	72° → 64° → 73° → … → 66° → 67° → 66° (21 versions)	62°	63° → 60° → 59° → … → 61° → 60° → 59° (20 versions)	22°	35% → 34% → 35% → … → 96% → 99% → 100% (40 versions)	390 pts
GEM (Canadian model)	68° → 78° → 74° → … → 66° → 69° → 68° (18 versions)	48°	61° → 67° → 62° → … → 60° → 61° → 60° (19 versions)	32°	63% → 62% → 67% → … → 50% → 49% → 71% (14 versions)	110 pts
ICON (German model)	68° → 64° → 63° → … → 67° → 66° → 65° (19 versions)	42°	58° → 61° → 55° → … → 61° → 60° → 61° (21 versions)	40°	48% → 68% → 38% → … → 68% → 88% → 100% (11 versions)	80 pts
HRRR	70° → 66° → 65° → 64° → 66° → 67° → 66° → 65°	6°	61° → 62° → 61° → … → 61° → 62° → 61° (9 versions)	8°	–	–

What they said

Each forecaster's 9 a.m. forecast for this day, made 1 to 7 days before. The small numbers are the miss in degrees.

Days before	Forecaster	High	Low	Rain chance
1	Consensus forecast	68° +3	60° -1	50%✓
1	FOX4 weather team	69° +4	59° -2	–
1	FOX4 website	69° +4	61° 0	42%✗
1	KCTV5 First Warn team	68° +3	60° -1	50%✓
1	KCTV5 website	68° +3	60° -1	50%✓
1	KMBC 9 First Alert team	69° +4	57° -4	–
1	KMBC 9 website	67° +2	59° -2	55%✓
1	KSHB 41 weather team	69° +4	57° -4	30%✗
1	KSHB 41 website	69° +4	61° 0	48%✗
1	ECMWF (European model)	67° +2	60° -1	75%✓
1	GEM (Canadian model)	68° +3	61° 0	50%✓
1	GFS (American model)	66° +1	60° -1	94%✓
1	HRRR	70° +5	61° 0	rain✓
1	ICON (German model)	64° -1	59° -2	68%✓
1	National Blend of Models	68° +3	59° -2	43%✗
1	National Weather Service	70° +5	59° -2	23%✗
2	Consensus forecast	68° +3	59° -2	52%✗
2	FOX4 weather team	69° +4	57° -4	–
2	FOX4 website	68° +3	61° 0	21%✗
2	KCTV5 First Warn team	68° +3	60° -1	60%✓
2	KCTV5 website	68° +3	60° -1	60%✓
2	KMBC 9 First Alert team	69° +4	59° -2	–
2	KMBC 9 website	67° +2	59° -2	20%✗
2	KSHB 41 weather team	69° +4	57° -4	40%✗
2	KSHB 41 website	68° +3	59° -2	21%✗
2	ECMWF (European model)	62° -3	60° -1	55%✓
2	GEM (Canadian model)	64° -1	59° -2	48%✗
2	GFS (American model)	65° 0	60° -1	60%✓
2	ICON (German model)	64° -1	60° -1	58%✓
2	National Blend of Models	68° +3	59° -2	58%✓
2	National Weather Service	69° +4	57° -4	31%✗
3	Consensus forecast	68° +3	59° -2	51%✗
3	FOX4 weather team	67° +2	57° -4	–
3	FOX4 website	69° +4	61° 0	19%✗
3	KCTV5 First Warn team	68° +3	58° -3	60%✓
3	KCTV5 website	68° +3	58° -3	60%✓
3	KMBC 9 First Alert team	69° +4	59° -2	–
3	KMBC 9 website	68° +3	59° -2	24%✗
3	KSHB 41 weather team	69° +4	57° -4	40%✗
3	KSHB 41 website	69° +4	60° -1	18%✗
3	ECMWF (European model)	67° +2	58° -3	57%✓
3	GEM (Canadian model)	69° +4	59° -2	57%✓
3	GFS (American model)	63° -2	61° 0	73%✓
3	ICON (German model)	68° +3	56° -5	48%✗
3	National Blend of Models	68° +3	60° -1	41%✗
3	National Weather Service	69° +4	57° -4	53%✓
4	Consensus forecast	69° +4	58° -3	60%✓
4	FOX4 weather team	70° +5	58° -3	no rain✗
4	FOX4 website	70° +5	60° -1	61%✓
4	KCTV5 First Warn team	68° +3	58° -3	60%✓
4	KCTV5 website	68° +3	58° -3	60%✓
4	KMBC 9 First Alert team	69° +4	59° -2	–
4	KMBC 9 website	68° +3	58° -3	60%✓
4	KSHB 41 weather team	69° +4	57° -4	–
4	KSHB 41 website	69° +4	59° -2	60%✓
4	ECMWF (European model)	62° -3	59° -2	42%✗
4	GEM (Canadian model)	72° +7	61° 0	52%✓
4	GFS (American model)	65° 0	56° -5	74%✓
4	ICON (German model)	65° 0	56° -5	44%✗
4	National Blend of Models	67° +2	58° -3	54%✓
4	National Weather Service	69° +4	57° -4	54%✓
5	Consensus forecast	70° +5	59° -2	38%✗
5	FOX4 weather team	71° +6	57° -4	no rain✗
5	FOX4 website	71° +6	61° 0	24%✗
5	KCTV5 First Warn team	70° +5	58° -3	50%✓
5	KCTV5 website	70° +5	58° -3	50%✓
5	KMBC 9 First Alert team	71° +6	59° -2	–
5	KMBC 9 website	70° +5	59° -2	24%✗
5	KSHB 41 weather team	69° +4	58° -3	40%✗
5	KSHB 41 website	70° +5	60° -1	24%✗
5	ECMWF (European model)	70° +5	60° -1	38%✗
5	GEM (Canadian model)	69° +4	61° 0	45%✗
5	GFS (American model)	61° -4	58° -3	35%✗
5	ICON (German model)	63° -2	57° -4	38%✗
5	National Blend of Models	70° +5	60° -1	25%✗
5	National Weather Service	72° +7	58° -3	39%✗
6	Consensus forecast	70° +5	60° -1	53%✓
6	FOX4 weather team	65° 0	59° -2	no rain✗
6	FOX4 website	70° +5	64° +3	61%✓
6	KCTV5 First Warn team	70° +5	58° -3	50%✓
6	KCTV5 website	70° +5	58° -3	50%✓
6	KMBC 9 First Alert team	71° +6	60° -1	–
6	KMBC 9 website	69° +4	62° +1	60%✓
6	KSHB 41 weather team	68° +3	58° -3	40%✗
6	KSHB 41 website	69° +4	63° +2	60%✓
6	ECMWF (European model)	64° -1	60° -1	44%✗
6	GEM (Canadian model)	71° +6	64° +3	67%✓
6	GFS (American model)	63° -2	59° -2	56%✓
6	ICON (German model)	68° +3	61° 0	48%✗
6	National Blend of Models	72° +7	61° 0	45%✗
6	National Weather Service	74° +9	60° -1	60%✓
7	Consensus forecast	68° +3	60° -1	55%✗
7	FOX4 website	– –	65° +4	–
7	KCTV5 website	66° +1	57° -4	40%✗
7	KMBC 9 First Alert team	67° +2	54° -7	–
7	KMBC 9 website	72° +7	62° +1	64%✓
7	KSHB 41 weather team	66° +1	55° -6	30%✗
7	KSHB 41 website	73° +8	63° +2	63%✓
7	ECMWF (European model)	72° +7	63° +2	35%✗
7	GEM (Canadian model)	78° +13	67° +6	62%✓
7	GFS (American model)	63° -2	60° -1	69%✓
7	National Blend of Models	68° +3	59° -2	47%✗
7	National Weather Service	– –	54° -7	–