KC Weather Check

Day by day

Thursday, November 5, 2026

High55°
Low42° official minimum
Raintrace

Most accurate TV weather team for the day, by the Rankings' measure (the average miss of the high and low, 1 day out): FOX4 weather team, 0.50°.

WeatherChecked Ranked #1 - Daily

The WeatherChecked badge

FOX4 weather team: number 1 Kansas City TV weather team for Thursday, November 5, 2026. The station is welcome to show this badge, linked to this page, which has the result and how it was decided.

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Gaps in the forecasts for this day because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 6:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 30, 9:37 p.m. to Oct 31, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 31, 10:37 p.m. to Nov 1, 9:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Oct 31, 11:37 p.m. to Nov 1, 9:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 1, 10:37 p.m. to Nov 1, 11:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 12:37 a.m. to Nov 2, 4:37 a.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 6:37 a.m. to Nov 2, 7:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 8:37 a.m. to Nov 2, 9:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 1:37 p.m. to Nov 2, 3:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 4:37 p.m. to Nov 2, 6:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 2, 8:37 p.m. to Nov 2, 9:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 12:37 a.m. to Nov 3, 1:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 3:37 a.m. to Nov 3, 4:37 a.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 6:37 a.m. to Nov 3, 7:37 a.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 12:37 p.m. to Nov 3, 1:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 6:37 p.m. to Nov 3, 7:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 9:37 p.m. to Nov 3, 11:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 3, 9:37 p.m. to Nov 4, 12:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 4, 4:37 a.m. to Nov 4, 5:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 4, 7:37 a.m. to Nov 4, 9:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 2:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 3:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 4:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 5:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 8:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 11:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 3:37 p.m. to Nov 5, 4:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 5:37 p.m. to Nov 5, 8:37 p.m.

How the forecasts changed

Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to the end of the day. A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind; the line marked Actual is what happened. The shaded part is the day itself.

The high

45°50°55°60°65°70°Thu 29Fri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4Thu 5Actual 55°KSHB 41 websiteKMBC 9 websiteFOX4 websiteKCTV5 websiteNational Blend of ModelsGFS (American model)ECMWF (European model)GEM (Canadian model)National Weather ServiceICON (German model)HRRRKSHB 41 weather teamKMBC 9 First Alert teamKCTV5 First Warn teamFOX4 weather team

The low

35°40°45°50°55°60°65°Thu 29Fri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4Thu 5Actual 42°KSHB 41 websiteKMBC 9 websiteFOX4 websiteKCTV5 websiteNational Blend of ModelsGFS (American model)ECMWF (European model)GEM (Canadian model)National Weather ServiceICON (German model)HRRRKSHB 41 weather teamKMBC 9 First Alert teamKCTV5 First Warn teamFOX4 weather team

The chance of rain

KMBC 9's on-air graphic gives no chance of rain (nor did the KMBC 9 and KSHB 41 articles read until October 15). The KSHB 41, KCTV5 and FOX4 graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.

0%20%40%60%80%100%Thu 29Fri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4Thu 5No rain (a trace)KSHB 41 websiteKMBC 9 websiteFOX4 websiteKCTV5 websiteNational Blend of ModelsGFS (American model)ECMWF (European model)GEM (Canadian model)National Weather ServiceICON (German model)KSHB 41 weather teamKCTV5 First Warn teamFOX4 weather team

Every change

Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)

ForecasterThe high, every changeBack-and-forthThe low, every changeBack-and-forth Chance of rain, every changeBack-and-forth
KSHB 41 weather team60° → 58° → 60° → 59° → 57° → 56°4°46° → 45° → 44° → 41° → 42°2° 0% → 20%0 pts
KMBC 9 First Alert team61° → 62° → 60° → 58° → 56°2°44° → 46° → 44° → 43° → 41°4° ––
KCTV5 First Warn team62° → 59° → 62° → 59° → 57° → 55°6°50° → 45° → 47° → 45° → 44° → 43° → 44°6° 20% → 0% → 30% → 20%60 pts
FOX4 weather team62° → 63° → 62° → … → 56° → 55° → 54° (11 versions)6°42° → 45° → 44° → … → 43° → 42° → 39° (10 versions)12° 0% → 20% → 0% → 20% → 0% → 20% → 0% → 20%120 pts
KSHB 41 website56° → 57° → 58° → … → 58° → 59° → 58° (91 versions)102°45° → 44° → 46° → … → 44° → 45° → 44° (75 versions)86° 13% → 11% → 10% → … → 9% → 6% → 3% (120 versions)248 pts
KMBC 9 website55° → 54° → 55° → … → 48° → 49° → 48° (91 versions)98°44° → 45° → 46° → … → 42° → 41° → 42° (67 versions)78° 24% → 14% → 13% → … → 7% → 15% → 8% (125 versions)264 pts
KCTV5 website62° → 59° → 62° → … → 58° → 57° → 58° (11 versions)16°50° → 45° → 47° → … → 44° → 42° → 40° (9 versions)6° 24% → 0% → 30% → 20%60 pts
FOX4 website63° → 62° → 65° → … → 49° → 48° → 47° (29 versions)26°63° → 46° → 47° → … → 44° → 45° → 44° (19 versions)28° 0% → 24% → 17% → … → 5% → 2% → 0% (35 versions)158 pts
National Weather Service60° → 64° → 63° → … → 56° → 55° → 56° (13 versions)18°45° → 46° → 45° → … → 47° → 42° → 41° (12 versions)18° 12% → 17% → 18% → … → 8% → 2% → 14% (16 versions)92 pts
National Blend of Models62° → 60° → 61° → … → 56° → 57° → 55° (20 versions)20°46° → 45° → 47° → … → 41° → 42° → 43° (17 versions)22° 14% → 9% → 14% → … → 1% → 2% → 1% (33 versions)84 pts
GFS (American model)56° → 58° → 59° → … → 56° → 57° → 56° (27 versions)82°54° → 39° → 47° → … → 43° → 44° → 43° (23 versions)66° 29% → 19% → 17% → … → 0% → 3% → 0% (28 versions)182 pts
ECMWF (European model)52° → 62° → 59° → … → 58° → 57° → 56° (23 versions)50°43° → 46° → 43° → … → 46° → 45° → 43° (22 versions)46° 15% → 25% → 26% → … → 2% → 0% → 10% (25 versions)118 pts
GEM (Canadian model)51° → 49° → 52° → … → 52° → 51° → 52° (20 versions)50°37° → 42° → 58° → … → 40° → 39° → 40° (17 versions)66° 17% → 27% → 24% → … → 29% → 6% → 0% (15 versions)84 pts
ICON (German model)53° → 55° → 57° → … → 51° → 52° → 54° (19 versions)30°42° → 49° → 46° → … → 43° → 44° → 43° (22 versions)58° 43% → 23% → 29% → … → 3% → 5% → 3% (14 versions)66 pts
HRRR50° → 49° → 52° → … → 51° → 52° → 53° (10 versions)8°41° → 43° → 42° → 43° → 44° → 43° → 42°6° ––

What they said

Each forecaster's 9 a.m. forecast for this day, made 1 to 7 days before. The small numbers are the miss in degrees.

Days beforeForecasterHighLowRain chance
1Consensus forecast 55° 042° 0 8%✓
1FOX4 weather team 56° +142° 0 –
1FOX4 website 57° +245° +3 7%✓
1KCTV5 First Warn team 55° 044° +2 20%✓
1KCTV5 website 55° 044° +2 20%✓
1KMBC 9 First Alert team 58° +341° -1 –
1KMBC 9 website 55° 043° +1 7%✓
1KSHB 41 weather team 57° +242° 0 20%✓
1KSHB 41 website 56° +144° +2 6%✓
1ECMWF (European model) 55° 044° +2 4%✓
1GEM (Canadian model) 52° -337° -5 35%✓
1GFS (American model) 56° +143° +1 3%✓
1HRRR 50° -542° 0 no rain✓
1ICON (German model) 50° -542° 0 8%✓
1National Blend of Models 55° 040° -2 9%✓
1National Weather Service 56° +142° 0 4%✓
2Consensus forecast 59° +444° +2 17%✓
2FOX4 weather team 60° +543° +1 no rain✓
2FOX4 website 60° +545° +3 10%✓
2KCTV5 First Warn team 57° +244° +2 20%✓
2KCTV5 website 57° +244° +2 20%✓
2KMBC 9 First Alert team 60° +543° +1 –
2KMBC 9 website 58° +343° +1 12%✓
2KSHB 41 weather team 59° +444° +2 20%✓
2KSHB 41 website 60° +544° +2 8%✓
2ECMWF (European model) 57° +244° +2 7%✓
2GEM (Canadian model) 51° -437° -5 33%✓
2GFS (American model) 59° +443° +1 11%✓
2ICON (German model) 54° -145° +3 18%✓
2National Blend of Models 56° +143° +1 15%✓
2National Weather Service 59° +444° +2 29%✓
3Consensus forecast 59° +445° +3 17%✓
3FOX4 weather team 61° +643° +1 20%✓
3FOX4 website 60° +547° +5 18%✓
3KCTV5 First Warn team 57° +245° +3 30%✓
3KCTV5 website 57° +245° +3 30%✓
3KMBC 9 First Alert team 60° +543° +1 –
3KMBC 9 website 58° +345° +3 18%✓
3KSHB 41 weather team 59° +445° +3 no rain✓
3KSHB 41 website 59° +446° +4 17%✓
3ECMWF (European model) 60° +543° +1 8%✓
3GEM (Canadian model) 49° -637° -5 14%✓
3GFS (American model) 57° +244° +2 16%✓
3ICON (German model) 56° +147° +5 15%✓
3National Blend of Models 59° +444° +2 9%✓
3National Weather Service 60° +543° +1 9%✓
4Consensus forecast 60° +545° +3 13%✓
4FOX4 weather team 60° +546° +4 20%✓
4FOX4 website 60° +545° +3 19%✓
4KCTV5 First Warn team 59° +445° +3 no rain✓
4KCTV5 website 59° +445° +3 0%✓
4KMBC 9 First Alert team 62° +744° +2 –
4KMBC 9 website 59° +444° +2 11%✓
4KSHB 41 weather team 59° +446° +4 no rain✓
4KSHB 41 website 60° +545° +3 10%✓
4ECMWF (European model) 56° +145° +3 16%✓
4GEM (Canadian model) 56° +140° -2 14%✓
4GFS (American model) 53° -245° +3 29%✓
4ICON (German model) 60° +547° +5 13%✓
4National Blend of Models 60° +545° +3 8%✓
4National Weather Service 63° +844° +2 11%✓
5Consensus forecast 60° +546° +4 17%✓
5FOX4 weather team 60° +546° +4 20%✓
5FOX4 website 63° +846° +4 17%✓
5KCTV5 First Warn team 62° +747° +5 no rain✓
5KCTV5 website 62° +747° +5 0%✓
5KMBC 9 First Alert team 61° +646° +4 –
5KMBC 9 website 58° +344° +2 17%✓
5KSHB 41 weather team 60° +546° +4 no rain✓
5KSHB 41 website 59° +444° +2 16%✓
5ECMWF (European model) 57° +248° +6 22%✓
5GEM (Canadian model) 50° -539° -3 12%✓
5GFS (American model) 58° +346° +4 6%✓
5ICON (German model) 57° +250° +8 29%✓
5National Blend of Models 61° +643° +1 7%✓
5National Weather Service 65° +1045° +3 17%✓
6Consensus forecast 62° +746° +4 22%✓
6FOX4 weather team 63° +845° +3 no rain✓
6FOX4 website 64° +950° +8 24%✓
6KCTV5 First Warn team 59° +445° +3 no rain✓
6KCTV5 website 59° +445° +3 0%✓
6KMBC 9 First Alert team 61° +646° +4 –
6KMBC 9 website 62° +748° +6 22%✓
6KSHB 41 weather team 60° +546° +4 no rain✓
6KSHB 41 website 63° +849° +7 24%✓
6ECMWF (European model) 59° +444° +2 22%✓
6GEM (Canadian model) 62° +758° +16 20%✓
6GFS (American model) 62° +742° 0 23%✓
6ICON (German model) 53° -249° +7 43%✓
6National Blend of Models 62° +747° +5 12%✓
6National Weather Service 64° +946° +4 18%✓
7Consensus forecast 59° +446° +4 17%✓
7FOX4 website – –47° +5 –
7KCTV5 website 62° +750° +8 24%✓
7KMBC 9 First Alert team 61° +644° +2 –
7KMBC 9 website 57° +245° +3 14%✓
7KSHB 41 weather team 60° +546° +4 no rain✓
7KSHB 41 website 58° +346° +4 12%✓
7ECMWF (European model) 52° -346° +4 25%✓
7GEM (Canadian model) 49° -642° 0 27%✓
7GFS (American model) 59° +447° +5 17%✓
7National Blend of Models 60° +545° +3 9%✓
7National Weather Service – –45° +3 –