Thursday, November 12, 2026
The forecasts for this day so far. It's scored once the day is over.
Gaps in the forecasts for this day because a station's site refused the reader. FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 2:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 3:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 4:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 5:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 8:37 a.m. to Nov 5, 11:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 3:37 p.m. to Nov 5, 4:37 p.m.; FOX4 weather team and FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 5, 5:37 p.m. to Nov 5, 8:37 p.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 6, 12:37 a.m. to Nov 6, 1:37 a.m.; FOX4 website: fox4kc.com refused the reader from Nov 6, 6:37 a.m. to Nov 6, 7:37 a.m.
How the forecasts changed
Each forecaster's high, low and chance of rain for this day every time they changed, from a week before to now (2:07 p.m.). A flat stretch is a forecast holding; a zig-zag is a forecaster changing its mind. The shaded part is the day itself.
- KMBC 9 First Alert team
- KCTV5 First Warn team
- FOX4 weather team
- KSHB 41 website
- KMBC 9 website
- KCTV5 website
- FOX4 website
- National Weather Service
- National Blend of Models
- GFS (American model)
- ECMWF (European model)
- GEM (Canadian model)
- ICON (German model)
The high
The low
The chance of rain
KMBC 9's on-air graphic gives no chance of rain (nor did the KMBC 9 and KSHB 41 articles read until October 15). The KSHB 41, KCTV5 and FOX4 graphics show one only when there is one, so a day without one there is drawn at 0%.
Every change
Back-and-forth: how far the forecast moved one way and then back, in degrees: all its moves minus the overall change, so a forecast that heads one way (60°, 63°, 65°) scores 0 and one that changes its mind (68°, 72°, 68°) scores 8. For the chance of rain it's in percentage points (30%, 60%, 30% scores 60). (The scorecard counts the high's changes until 9 a.m. on the day and the low's until midnight before it.)
| Forecaster | The high, every change | Back-and-forth | The low, every change | Back-and-forth | Chance of rain, every change | Back-and-forth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMBC 9 First Alert team | 69° | 0° | 46° | 0° | – | – |
| KCTV5 First Warn team | 55° → 54° | 0° | 39° → 42° | 0° | 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 weather team | 62° | 0° | 46° | 0° | 0% | 0 pts |
| KSHB 41 website | 63° → 62° → 63° → … → 61° → 62° → 61° (22 versions) | 20° | 38° → 39° → 38° → … → 37° → 38° → 40° (22 versions) | 22° | 5% → 6% → 5% → … → 6% → 7% → 6% (12 versions) | 10 pts |
| KMBC 9 website | 62° → 63° → 62° → … → 59° → 60° → 57° (19 versions) | 16° | 38° → 37° → 39° → … → 37° → 39° → 38° (18 versions) | 20° | 5% → 6% → 5% → … → 5% → 6% → 5% (11 versions) | 10 pts |
| KCTV5 website | 69° → 55° → 54° | 0° | 49° → 39° → 42° | 6° | 24% → 0% | 0 pts |
| FOX4 website | 45° → 44° → 43° → 61° → 62° → 61° | 6° | 43° → 44° → 38° → … → 38° → 39° → 41° (9 versions) | 16° | 0% → 6% → 5% | 2 pts |
| National Weather Service | 65° → 62° → 61° | 0° | 46° → 44° → 45° → 42° | 2° | 1% → 2% → 3% → 2% | 2 pts |
| National Blend of Models | 66° → 64° → 62° → 63° → 58° | 2° | 47° → 45° → 46° → 45° → 46° → 44° → 42° | 4° | 2% → 3% → 2% → 5% → 2% → 4% → 2% | 12 pts |
| GFS (American model) | 54° → 44° → 47° → 52° → 48° → 47° → 48° | 18° | 35° → 33° → 36° → 37° → 39° → 37° → 44° | 8° | 6% → 0% → 6% | 12 pts |
| ECMWF (European model) | 68° → 62° → 57° → 58° | 2° | 46° → 48° → 45° → 46° | 6° | 2% → 10% → 6% → 2% → 6% | 16 pts |
| GEM (Canadian model) | 58° → 57° → 58° → 57° | 2° | 30° → 28° → 31° → 32° | 4° | 0% → 5% → 0% | 10 pts |
| ICON (German model) | 51° → 54° | 0° | 43° → 36° → 47° | 14° | 10% → 5% | 0 pts |